Chicago Real Estate Still Has Years to Recover!

Chicago housing market won't recover until 2013. It is predicted that existing home sales will reach 95,000 a year by 2013. During the peak of the housing boom, that figure was over 50,000 higher. If we assume that the 95,000 figure is based on more sensible lending practices, it would seem to be a sustainable recovery if it happens.



One of the more disturbing quotes from the article is, "Chicago homeowners will have to get used to a new reality, where selling a house routinely takes six months or more and home appreciation just barely outpaces inflation." This indicates that real estate may not be the way to invest money for the long-term. When I was growing up, my father, a high school teacher "lucky" enough to teach a section of consumer economics, always told me, "Everyone should buy a home. You save your 20% down, you find one that won't have a mortgage payment greater than 40% of your monthly income, and you begin to build equity."


This is clearly not the case as it is projected that home values in Chicago will drop 5.7% by the third quarter of this year. Moreover, the price of a home in Chicago compared to income is upside down. The median home price was 3.3 times that of the median income in the third quarter of 2009. On average, from 1980-2000, this figure was 2.6. If the market takes a long time to rebound, we may see the City of Big Shoulders become the City of Big Rentals.


As we get into the underwater mortgage foreclosure wave, we may see housing values decrease even further. According to Crain's, 21% of mortgages in Chicago are underwater. As those homes go to foreclosure, we can expect them to further devalue housing. Since most people don't fight their foreclosures, we can further expect that the market will be flooded with judicial sale properties as well as even more REOs.


This may seem like a buyer's market, but since banks aren't lending as freely as they once did, the decreased cost of a home will not do much to drive purchases.